It is quite clear that students have very little skill in handicapping.
Parents should play a simple game with students. Would you bet me the application fee, cost of the trip to visit and the costs of sending test scores? Most students would then understand that 50% acceptance risk is pretty much ideal.
There are times to take more risk but at least 75% of all students are in no position to take more than 50% risk with each application.
The whole concept of Reach, Match and Safety is completely flawed.