Merit scholarship awards are HIGHLY unpredictable and should not be anticipated. if you read @Soofdad’s thread http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/university-maryland-college-park/1959344-scholarship-facts.html#latest and look at the number of scholarships available compared to the estimate of admitted fall applicants (approx 8-10,000) you will have a better sense of why we say there is no way to determine how much, if any, merit award any student can anticipate. Being invited to honors does not correlate to anything other than being eligible to be considered for one of the 400 top B/K scholarships that require an interview.
I have seen many students complain that they were not awarded merit $ but yet were invited to honors college, so they “expected” something…not the case. I have seen students in programs other than honors (scholars, civicus, etc - and FIRE is newer but would be part of those “other” programs I am referring to) get $ and students that were not invited to any programs get $, although from the posters on cc, the latter seemed less frequent and primarily those with high enough stats to be admitted to the LEP they applied to, yet no other program.
My point is there is NO predicting them and NO threshold to base any predictions on.