<p>“mini - perhaps you have done so before, so excuse me if I’m asking for something that’s already been shared in the past…but could you please provide the evidence that clearly shows a cause and effect here? I know that drunk driving fatalities have been reduced since the drinking age was increased to 21. But some of this reduction may be due to people using seat belts (a huge percentage increase) or a change in cultural beliefs regarding drunk driving. Or perhaps better lighted highways. Really now, how can you absolutely prove the reduction in deaths was a result of the change in drinking age?”</p>
<p>So here’s how it was proven (I have posted the links before). States actually changed their drinking rates in different years. Often, there were contiguous states with different drinking rates. Demographers would match up characteristics in neighboring communities to ensure the comparison groups were reliable. They would then not only compare rates of drinking-driving fatalities before and after (again, the data is pretty stunning), but also what was happening in contiguous states and contiguous communities (with the same seatbelt laws, etc.) Really, it was about as pure a “natural” experiment as one ever finds in the world of human behavior.</p>
<p>Then the data is tested for statistical significance (because just because there are “apparent” differences doesn’t mean this isn’t a result of “noise” in the data). An awful lot of Ph.Ds were awarded (the data sets were so rich!) ;)</p>
<p>From a scientific perspective, it is very “cut and dry”. Changes in the drinking age had HUGE impacts on both rates of traffic accidents and on traffic fatalities among young adults. </p>
<p>And, yes, NOW, highest rate of drunk-drive fatalities are among young “legal” drinkers. Any guess way? (How 'bout using Occam’s Razor - laws against under-21 drinkers actually work?)</p>
<p>There were increases in underage drinking between the early 90s, and 2000. College drinking, however, has actually declined somewhat in the past six years, and is likely attributable to four factors: 1) A higher rate of minorities - especially African Americans, Asian Americans, and Hispanics attending college - all three groups have much lower drinking rates than Caucasians; 2) More older students attending college - the median age of an UNDERGRADUATE is now 24.5 years of age (18-22 year olds are the exceptions, not the rule, though I note that college drinking has declined for them as well); 3) More female students (they drink less); and 4) the effectiveness of new efforts at many colleges at harm reduction (i.e. reducing the amount that drinking students drink) and in enforcement of drinking laws.</p>
<p>If you don’t believe the drinking age (and enforcement of same) can impact college drinking behavior among 18-20 year olds, I urge you to take a trip to the University of Oklahoma.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, if the college presidents were really interested in moderating rates of binge drinking, there are only a couple of dozen proven, evidence-based practices being utilized on other campuses around the country today that are well short of “debates” about a law which has been proven to save lives. No one stops them from taking action tomorrow - something McCardell never had the courage to do.</p>