What’s the explanation for the dramatic decline in hospitalizations and cases in recent weeks if it isn’t due to herd immunity from vaccines, given everything has been opening up? It’s pretty much at the same level of vaccinations (~50% of the population with one dose) where Israel also saw a rapid decline in cases.
Herd immunity doesn’t mean zero cases, it means a rapid decline and then a low enough level of new cases that life can resume as normal. You can argue we aren’t there yet since we are still in the declining phase (and some states are further along than others), but I think that saying “we don’t seem close” would be unduly pessimistic.