I want to commend you for starting this search early! After going through it with my kid this year, I wish we had trimmed the list down. Many schools gave excellent merit, but few close to the full tuition we hoped for. My kid’s stats are similar to yours. Waitlisted at Vandy, rejected at Washington. Vandy has a lot of merit, Washington not nearly as much. In at Emory, Davidson, Richmond and a few SLACs. Good merit at many schools but not great. My kid will likely take the NMF package at Tulsa. We really liked it.
I heard another parent say, " You can chase money or prestige but not both." I think that is very true.
Oh, and there are no mountains around Duke 
Good luck finding the right school for you.