<p>They were most likely discussing probabilities, as follows:</p>
<p>You graduate, and become an ensign.</p>
<p>If you can fog a mirror in two years, you become a LTJG.
If you haven’t run your ship aground, and haven’t ticked off your CO, you make LT two years later (I know one guy who didn’t).
About 3-4 years later, if you are having had a good Department Head tour, you SHOULD make LCDR.</p>
<p>With me so far?</p>
<p>The first BIG jump is from LCDR to CDR. It’s the first step where there is some SERIOUS thinning out of the herd. The same thing happens at CAPT and each step up, only the selection is even more selective than the level below it.</p>
<p>So, if you ran a pareto chart (may as well teach you guys some process control while I’m at this 
), you will have a whole SLEW (close to 100%) who make LTJG and LT, a smaller percentage that will make it to LCDR, a MUCH smaller percentage that will make it to CDR, and an even MUCH smaller percentage that will make it to CAPT. The number of admirals in a class is likely to be less than 10, and that’s being WILDLY optimistic. 2-3 is more realistic, and even that can be tough depending upon what the year groups around yours are doing.</p>
<p>Hope that helps!</p>