To me, selectivity’s main factors are admission rate, average GPA of admits, and SAT/ACT ranges of admits. That combination tells you how quantitatively strong the admits are and how few of them get in.
If you want a simple, rough guide for chances, start by doing this:
- Start with the admit rate of the round you are applying in.
- If you have a hook, increase that number a little bit (or a lot, if you're a recruit). If you do not have a hook, decrease that number by a little bit.
- Compare your GPA and SAT/ACT to the averages posted by the school (check CDS). If your stats are in the middle, do not change the number. If your stats are higher, increase the number. If lower, decrease the number.
A simple rule I follow is this, for highly selective schools: if your stats are absolutely top of the app pool (4.0/1600/36 or nearly so), double where you are on step 3 and subtract one point. I don’t think you can have 2x the chances of other mostly talented applicants, but maybe you can come close. Most selective privates are holistic, so numbers aren’t everything.
Plug that number into this table for the chance:
High reach: 0-5%
Reach: 5-15%
Low reach: 15-25%
High match: 25-40%
Match: 40-60%
Low match: 60-90%
Safety: 90+%
Caveats:
- Nobody knows exactly how much hooks or better/worse stats move the needle.
- We can only base chancing on quantitative aspects, since it’s so hard to know how adcoms will view the qualitative parts. So it’s an incomplete picture.
- If you are applying directly to a major/program, make sure you use that admit rate, if the school releases that info.