Regarding the uncertainties mentioned above, IMO the most important take-away message (for applicants/families) is that you need to consider the specific expectations of schools that interest you. For example, a 3.5 (UW) GPA might place UC Irvine/SB/Davis nearly out-of-reach, even though (depending on course rigor or other factors) it might be good enough for some schools with lower admit rates and higher average test scores.