Yea. I feel like your chancing is low. My two oldest have or had 91 and 92 averages and that was equal to 3.7 and 3.73 UW. Average GPA of admitted students at both SMU and TCU is 3.67, so I would have assume 90 is right there. Rigor will matter somewhat to get into the business programs but overall their admission standards are definitely not anywhere near the same level as “elite” schools. Based on what has been said about OP academics they seem very on par with a typical admit.
And yes, their budget is definitely a consideration, especially at these expensive schools.