Dealing with buying something (college) where I don't know what the actual cost will be year to year

I was hunting for a thread that would discuss whether aid will continue beyond the student’s first year. Of course need-based aid will move year-to-year depending on the student’s (& family’s) financial situation. But beyond calculating a student’s “need” based on the FAFSA and/or CSS, a school may be more likely to “pull” aid back from the first year package once the student has matriculated:

  • Redistribution of need-based aid to loans from institutional need-based grants, and
  • Pulling back merit aid (aka tuition coupons) once the kid has matriculated and boosted your yield and metrics.

Yes, graduation rate counts for the rankings of course. But the yield and admissions metrics are SO important in that regard, that they’d have to see a pretty substantial number of these students transfer in order to really hurt themselves more by lowering the grad rate (especially compared to the “typical” student). Plus even if they’re going to transfer, getting the rug pulled out in April means they’re still likely to suck it up at your school so they don’t have to take a year off. So you get added revenue, and maybe they’ll stick around and take a slew of loans if they just love it so much and can’t envision themselves anywhere else.

So where is it most difficult to see your gift award, need-based or merit, be renewed in full? I’ve heard stories of a few schools but for at least one the data they present doesn’t appear to support those claims.