Edit/Update as while I was typing this up, OP switched to RD round. So this analysis is for future applicants looking into Pre-Med at UChicago . . . .
UCIHP GPA data refers specifically to MD programs, so at least we can all be clear on that.
GPA and MCAT should not be considered independently from one another. Med-school admits from UC have a lower GPA and higher MCATs than the national average, as UCIHPS has pointed out in the FAQ’s.
Obviously they aren’t controlling for other factors when presenting this data. It would be deceptive do so when, in fact, a post-bac program would be required at those values. However, a couple of points: 1) The higher national GPA/Science GPA data obviously also includes some percentage of Post-Baccs; so the relevant comparison would be whether UChicago includes a LARGER or SMALLER percentage of such, not whether it includes Post-Baccs at all; and 2) Given that it’s UChicago we are discussing, some med school applicants might already be engaging in post-baccalaureate education anyway - not to boost their GPA but to to further their education.
OP can easily contact UCIHP and ask what percentage start the application cycle their junior year vs. senior year or later (because they plan to work or attend another education program after college), what GPA range would require a post-bacc boost, etc.
URM impact on UCIHP’s GPA data: I don’t think there is an impact. First of all, the very notion that there might be is based on faulty reasoning. UChicago shows a higher MCAT as well as lower GPA’s. We know that URM’s on a national average basis show both lower MCAT and lower GPA’s. Therefore, UChicago URM’s admitted to med school are either negligible as a group or follow the same trend as other ethnic/racial groups at UChicago. Second, it appears that as long as UChicago’s racial/ethnic mix of med school admits is representative of the College overall, then there can be no GPA differential due to racial mix. We can see that simply by comparing what the national average GPA’s in the link below would be if adjusted for the the College’s specific racial/ethnic proportions (from College Navigator). Admitted Science GPA’s, adjusted for UChicago’s mix, is the same 3.66 as the national average. Therefore, at least for the Science GPA, UChicago’s mix isn’t different from the national average. According to UCIHP, about 100-125 students apply to med school every year, and somewhere between 80-88% are admitted regularly. That means at least 80 students per year are admitted to med school. Unless the racial/ethnic mix of this group is different from the College overall, the Science GPA differential is due to lower overall grades, not a higher-than-average number of URMs.
https://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/blog/medical-school-acceptance-rates-by-race
One can do the same analysis with the overall GPA and the MCAT.
Again, hope this is helpful information and analysis to OP’s decision - or anyone else’s for that matter.