The most surprising outcome to me is how comically accurate CollegeVine’s chance-me engine is for DS. He applied to 13 schools with CV’s probability of acceptance roughly uniformly distributed over the interval 7%-92%. He got accepted to every school at or above 55% and waitlisted/rejected by every school at or below 54%. We were joking that the admission process might as well be deterministic and be completely dependent on whether CV’s numbers are above a threshold around 50%. In fact, for the last few schools to announce we have been using this simple rule to make prediction. (Anyway, we understand the small sample size caveat and that this is just a notable coincidence.)
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