Yes - that’s what I mean…Barnard ED may have a better chance than Wellesley RD - even if Wellesley has a higher overall rate.
Now that OP is into RD, it will be even tougher.
Given the student’s stats (a private school, so they should have good counseling - but on paper - I’d assume
CMC, Wellesley, Tufts, GT, Rice, and Northwestern would all be “nos” and unless the student already has a safety, they need one.
For their interests, it can be anything from a Charleston (where my daughter attends - safety - although check Honors deadline) to - for an LAC - Occidental (likely), Mac (match), Trinity (San Antonio - match), Gettysburg (safety), Dickinson (likely), and Rhodes (likely). If needs a meets need school, a Lehigh, Connecticut, and F&M have promise - but might be too late for Demonstrated Interest…and IU, Pitt, and Miami of Ohio would be very good in this arena.