I have been thinking about this as well. Seems to be best to be in a position where the student can say they will 100%?go the school if it is $x per year. My D is very undecided and is waiting on 3 decisions at the moment (2 of which are ones that are probably in her top 3-4). She also is waiting on a school that already gave a merit decision but she applied honors and that comes with some additional merit.
Anyone ever tried to bring merit down without being certain? Maybe not wise/tough to do. Nowhere has asked us about this yet.