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<p>Yes, this. I’ve long argued that the “cross-admit data” are not worth the toilet paper they’re printed on. Why? Because if your first choice is your state flagship, you’re not going to apply to an Ivy as a back-up. But if your first choice is an Ivy, you might well apply to your state flagship as a back-up. So “cross-admit data” is asymmetrical: the cross-admits who ultimately choose an Ivy over their state flagship will almost uniformly be people who preferred the Ivy ex ante but also applied to their state flagship as a back-up, while those who preferred the state flagship ex ante will only show up in the “cross-admit data” in rare instances. More broadly, if you peruse the “cross-admit” data you’ll find precious few examples where the less selective school wins the cross-admit “battles.” This doesn’t prove that the more selective school is almost always more desirable; it only proves that college applicants are realistic in their application strategies and once they’ve identified their “dream” school, they apply mainly to schools of comparable or lesser selectivity as back-ups. </p>
<p>Doh!</p>