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<p>Why the skepticism, Hunt? Suppose you were running a college that basically had no significant source of revenue other than tuition; and you were operating in a highly competitive environment where many students, especially the better students, have other choices; and you were operating close to the margin in being able to meet your annual operating expenses out of net tuition revenue given a targeted level of enrollment; but you knew enrollment decisions were often highly price-sensitive. Given all that, wouldn’t it be a rational thing to do to, in effect, set individually tailored tuition rates at price points calculated to optimize your yield among those able to pay the most, i.e., those willing to close the deal based on a modest-to-moderate discount off sticker price? </p>
<p>Better that than losing them to a competitor who is doing the same thing. Better that than losing them and needing to replace them with higher-need applicants whose net tuition after FA is going to be lower.</p>
<p>Or do we think college administrators with their backs against the wall financially aren’t rational economic decision-makers? Ot just not sophisticated enough to think about these things the way you or I would in their situation?</p>
<p>Of course, if you were such a college administrator, you might not be very good at executing this strategy at first. But you’d probably learn pretty quickly, by trial and error and by keeping a close eye on your competitors. And of course you could never completely individualize the price point, but you could at least sort the full-pays into bands. Heck, just their zip code and high school tells you a lot. You have their home address, which means you can look up their home on Google street view, Zillow, and in many cases the county property records online. If you really wanted to mine the data, there’s probably a ton of financial information you could get hold of, for a price—and it might be worth it to you. And from there, you can make some pretty educated guesses about price elasticities. You won’t be right all the time: sometimes you’ll offer a bigger discount than you needed to, sometimes you’ll offer too little and not close the deal. But the individual cases don’t matter so much, as long as you’re playing the averages right, and the more experience you have with it, the more finely calibrated your decisions should become.</p>
<p>Is that so implausible? I don’t run a financially strapped private college, but if I did, that’s just about exactly where I think I’d want to be. If I did anything less, I’d be risking the survival of the institution.</p>
<p>I do agree with you, though, that giving a big discount to a development case would be crazy. In the first place, they’re the least likely to be price-sensitive. Second, it signals that the institution really doesn’t need the money. Third, it calls into question the value of the product if the institution itself is saying to someone who can afford any price that although the nominal price is X, the real value is X - Y, where Y = the value of the offered discount.</p>