Depending on the college, something like 25-50% might be admitted in that zone. Again, very comparable to Oxbridge odds, say, maybe a bit better in some cases. Of course it is important to understand observed frequencies are not really the same thing as individual odds, but I think it is fair to conclude that absent something like really deficient rigor, in that zone you would be academically competitive.
For the most selective colleges, this was not really possible. The zone in question was right up at the top-right corner and there were plenty of people not being accepted.
As you started going down in college selectivity, you could start seeing different zones. Like, there might be a very similar band in which it was hit or miss but at a decent rate, and then in that top-right corner it would be more like 75-100%. Obviously it is never really 100% individual odds, I just mean all the recent applicants in that zone were in fact admitted.
I saw no evidence of such an effect in SCOIR, meaning pretty much always it looked like the higher the GPA/scores combination, the higher the observed frequency of admissions (understanding when there is not a lot of data points it gets a bit fuzzy).
So if you are applying to colleges in the range where 25-50% of kids get admitted, that is a pretty normal “reach” sort of situation (indeed, arguably more hard target sort of situation).
Of course I understand some parents and kids so desperately want to get into those particular colleges that they are angry there is not some easy formula they can follow which will turn that into 100%.
But as always, I think there is an available solution for such kids, which is to identify more colleges that would be great for them, get into multiple of those, and then know they are going to have a great college experience even if none of those 25-50% colleges come through for them.
Incidentally, that is pretty much exactly what happened to my S24. We spent a lot of time identifying great colleges for him, including using SCOIR. He was academically in the top right box, but he was concerned about things like his ECs and essays, so we made sure to identify a range by selectivity.
And then he didn’t get into any of the six colleges that were most selective (although he was waitlisted at two, and deferred-to-rejected at a third, so it wasn’t like he was crazy to apply).
But as per plan, he did get into a bunch more great colleges. WUSTL (which he chose), Carleton, and Vassar were his personal final three, and he also got into Haverford, William & Mary (with the Monroe), Wake Forest, Rochester, St Andrews, and Pitt.
OK, so a certain sort of kid/family could be really upset he didn’t get admitted to any of the most selective six, despite him being academically qualified.
But my kid and our family is thrilled he got to choose between so many different possible college experiences. Indeed, I still can’t decide what I would have chosen, including because I loved St Andrews, I think the Monroe at William & Mary is a fantastic program at a fantastic college, I really liked Haverford and its location and its consortiums (more than S24 I gather), and so on.
But sure, if you want to be upset that this is how it works when applying to the most selective colleges, you can choose to be upset. But that is not a choice I am going to be making.