Do I have a chance at Michigan or should I ED elsewhere?

Are you in-state or OOS for UMich? Acceptance rates are very different for these 2 groups and much more selective for OOS (class of 2022 had a 19.4% OOS acceptance rate). https://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/index.ssf/2018/06/university_of_michigan_receive_8.html

Further, Michigan does not have ED, only EA and RD. Many ED plans allow EA applications to public schools, so you could apply to Michigan EA in addition to another school ED, but always make sure you understand the specific ED rules. Of course, if you are accepted to your ED school, you would have to withdraw your Mich app.