Congrats on your hard work. I would say that I would seriously look at expanding beyond your three schools. There are so many wonderful schools with similar characteristics as your top two and would be better statistical matches for you. No harm in trying of course and perhaps you have a story to tell. No one knows for sure. My best guess would be a small group of students with a Chance with your basic profile. Those are reserved for special cases imho. If you have good physical fitness have you considered the academies ?