Here’s a highschooler’s two cents!
There’s no strategic benefit applying to MIT EA! The institute says so, right here:
http://mitadmissions.org/apply/freshman/cycles
If you’d attend MIT unconditionally on admittance, early action lets you abstain from the college app rush.
Nobody can tell you what your chance is. MITChris says so here:
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/massachusetts-institute-technology/939227-reminder-no-one-not-even-me-can-give-you-an-accurate-chance-at-mit-p1.html
Columbia’s website says a choice to apply ED should be driven by ‘a true passion for Columbia and a certainty that should you be admitted, you would attend’ right here:
https://undergrad.admissions.columbia.edu/apply/first-year/early-decision
I don’t wanna impose, but what you’ve said suggests you’ve got neither.
Putting all your reach-eggs in the basket of one high-caliber school is a fair decision, but ‘no chance’ isn’t a good reason not to apply for MIT EA.
Furthermore, I’m worried about your chances for Columbia ED if you’d greatly prefer attending MIT.