All anyone can say is apply and give it your best shot.
That said, I would strongly encourage you to not set up any one school – especially a school with an admissions rate under 5% as your “dream school”. There are more worthy applicants than spots available. Understand that you can have a wonderful experience and make all your dreams come true at many many different colleges.
FWIW my children did not attend my alma mater and I am incredibly proud of them both.