<p>There are 2 types of deferrals. The 1st is a student that is genuinely on the fence, and in the RD round of reviews their demonstrated preference via ED may be a tipping factor.</p>
<p>However it is much more likely that “deferred” students fall into the category of “rejected but we don’t want to tell you yet”. People like to think options are still open, and it is psychologically painful when they are closed. As Dan Ariely writes in his book “Predictably Irrational” people will pay extra for complicated features on computers or cameras they don’t understand or have any intention of using, just in case some day in the future they may decide they need them. See an interesting article about this at <a href=“http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/26/science/26tier.html[/url]”>http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/26/science/26tier.html</a> The flip side, of course, is that when options are taken away that causes distress.</p>
<p>So students that are deferred prefer to think they “still have a chance” when the truth is highly selective colleges know what they expect to see in admitted students and after the ED reading know that many of those students don’t have any chance at all of admission. The apps are filed in the rejected folder. But rather than notifying them and creating some ill-will for their school, they choose to go along with the fiction “still have a chance” and send out the rejection letter after the RD round.</p>