<p>ScientificAmerican (sciam.com) did an issue on Cities a few months ago. Describes how cities are very efficient.</p>
<p>DS may have to follow his classmates to the Bay, because the job opportunities are so much better along with the compensation. Cost of living is much higher but the pay does compensate.</p>
<p>My wife has been harping on me about hearing about inflation and rising prices so I mentioned to her that I think that things are going in the other direction (I’m not a big fan of financial shows). Gasoline has dropped very sharply in my area with prices ranging from $3.06 to $3.29. Natural Gas remains cheap and it appears that supply continues to come online.</p>
<p>While doing a bit of reading, I ran into the article below which says that the forecast for grains is record output in 2012. The question is: can cheap commodities (food, energy) help drive a growing economy (ours in particular)?</p>
<p>[U.S</a>. Forecasts Record Global Corn, Wheat Output - WSJ.com](<a href=“U.S. Forecasts Record Global Corn, Wheat Output - WSJ”>U.S. Forecasts Record Global Corn, Wheat Output - WSJ)</p>
<p>^^ I don’t know about whether it helps the economy, but you say this about the market. If the stocks go up, they’ll say it’s because of cheap commodity prices; it the Dow tanks, there will be an article that attributes it to cheap commodity prices.</p>
<p>The foreclosure notices in our paper yesterday were pretty sobering. I live in an an unusual area that’s an economic microcosm. The foreclosures included large (occupied) commercial properties, second homes of the 1%, homes of upper middle class professionals and small inner city homes.</p>
<p>Cvx, xom and aa are the three $indu stocks associated with commodities. Aa is weak while the other two are strong. Cvs just had a 50/200 crossover while xom is about to crossover.</p>
<p>BC, I received an email yesterday advising me to invest in Russia - any thought on that? The one person I know who tried to do business in Russia lost his shirt. That was a direct business and not investing.</p>
<p>Judging by EVERYTHING I see that is on huge sales, the lack of people in the stores (except for masses of annoying salespeople), I would say the economy is bad. I live in an area that isn’t suffering so much, so that is an additional badness to me.</p>
<p>On the other hand, I am recently being contacted by lots of lenders to refinance and cc solicitations. I believe that the current administration backing loans for foreclosures and mass marketings are being done by lenders. I think that will be good for the economy.</p>
<p>I was trading a stock back around 2002 or 2003 which had mining properties in Russia when they started talking about renegotiating minerals contracts with companies. The price of precious metals was going up and governments wanted more than what they agreed to. An extreme example of this is in Venezuela where they took over the oil operations from foreign multinationals. I’ve had some bad experiences (not horribly bad) with certain parts of the world. I won’t invest in South Africa because the unions take all of the company profits. I avoid West Africa too - political instability. There are lots of resource companies in Canada and I prefer those. The US keeps threatening to go after the rich oil companies in the US so there’s risk here too. I would invest in an XOM or CVX if I didn’t have anything else that I liked or if technical merits presented a compelling case. The 50/200 crosses do have me thinking.</p>
<p>Australia isn’t a bad place for resources too but it’s harder to get information on companies in Australia than Canada for me and Australia did try to pull the “tax the crap out of resources companies” thing - it was tossed after an uproar. China has been buying resource companies and/or resources from Australia and Canada for a while. I read an article in the WSJ a week or two ago where China is unhappy with the risk in the Middle East and Africa and is more focused on stable western nations for acquisitions and resources. How about that?</p>
<p>There was an article in the paper about heating aid being cut to New England for this winter. Federal heating aid is a very big deal in the Northeast. Part of the problem is that so many people use Heating Oil which is apparently very expensive compared to Natural Gas. They had an example of a 92-year-old lady in Boston that lived in a trailer with an expected bill of $3,000 for the winter for heating oil. She lives on a fixed income of about $11,000 per year. Our home is considerably larger than a trailer but the absolute coldest months will result in a $200 bill and that includes natural gas used for heating water, running the stove and the dryer. So it appears that heating oil is monstrously expensive or that her home is incredibly heat inefficient.</p>
<p>Heating Aid is a football at the moment but it will be cut in the budget - the discussion is about how much to cut; not whether to cut.</p>
<p>I see a lot of sales - I’m subscribed to the bargain thread and the volume on that thread has been pretty big. I haven’t bought anything this month just because I refuse to get caught up in the commercialism but I am tempted to buy some Capilene long underwear for the freezing weather that has already arrived.</p>
<p>I hear a ton of ads on the radio from lenders talking about refis. We’ve had some CC solicitations too and tons and tons of flyers from local stores with sales. We really don’t need tons of stuff.</p>
<p>The biggest threat at the moment still seems to be Europe. Mauldin had a really great piece on their structural issues this weekend and the power play that was executed by Germany over France.</p>
<p>[A</a> Player to Be Named Later - Thoughts from the Frontline Investment Newsletter - John Mauldin](<a href=“Mauldin Economics - Publisher of Free and Premium Investment Research”>Mauldin Economics - Publisher of Free and Premium Investment Research)</p>
<p>This tells me that Europe kicked the can down the road (Central Banks do this over and over and over again), and that their problems will be a recurring theme so we should continue to see volatility for years.</p>
<p>Many of you know that this is my favorite energy stock. They have a 5.3% dividend yield (it was as high as 30% several years ago) and I just collect the dividends every month. I mainly bought it when the yield was higher but I’m holding as I continue to like the way the company is managed. They are into Natural Gas liquids which seem to be doing quite well.</p>
<p><a href=“http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/8584/pvx.png[/url]”>http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/8584/pvx.png</a></p>
<p>Thanks BC. I pretty much have stayed away from China since the govt can take over at any time, and I suppose with the rioting now in Russia and where the regime is at, that is applicable there.</p>
<p>One of my natural gas stocks is down 25% since purchased a couple years ago, but I think it is because of infrastructure investing. My one European stock is doing well. I think the economy in certain markets is irrelevant to how a stock will do really, when there are options and future and hedge traders.</p>
<p>I just noticed that PVX has an options chain on it now. I don’t think that there were options available on it when I first started investing in it.</p>
<p>I think that the short players are generally reluctant to go after stocks that pay consistent, strong dividends as they hate to pay the dividend. I know that I hate paying the dividend when I am short a stock.</p>
<p>I just had a look at the January options and it isn’t worth it to me to sell calls.</p>
<p>You are going to start trading options, BCEagle91?</p>
<p><a href=“Awakening in the Glow of a Bloomberg Terminal - The New York Times”>Awakening in the Glow of a Bloomberg Terminal - The New York Times;
<p>Just noticed this in the NYT - it gives a glimpse into the life of these guys.</p>
<p>The dividend on PVX keeps going down.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>I was thinking of buying a thousand shares and then selling calls on
it if it looks like it would be worth it. I don’t expect any big moves
up on PVX unless oil spikes and 1,000 shares is chicken-feed enough to
just play around with. I’m going to ask the options expert in the office
if it’s worthwhile to do. At the moment, the options prices don’t look
super-attractive to me but it would be a low-risk way to try them out.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>Do you mean the yield or the amount? The yield has been going down
because the stock price has been going up. The amount has declined
somewhat with the recent strength of the US Dollar. The dividend is
priced in Canadian dollars so when the US Dollar goes up against the
Canadian dollar, the dividend goes down.</p>
<p>Our local gas co. (NWN) has a nice runup. Nice dividends, falling rates, and cold weather in OR. But hookups and overall sales are down. </p>
<p>I don’t understand. Perhaps they reduced their labor pool dramatically and have lower fixed costs from refinancing debt? Possible that FERC approved license for LNG pipeline to Port of CoosBay, enough for a tanker, every three days. NWN has will own the part of the pipeline, and gas will travel over its existing pipeline right-a-ways. </p>
<p>Environmentalists not happy. Some Politicians on both sides are opposed. - Exporting natural resources, even though the gas is from Canada and excess to US. Japan probably needs this gas ASAP.</p>
<p>NWN is a pipeline and delivery company - they are not a producer. It’s an interesting company as are companies in general when they have a monopoly in an area (pipelines). The benefit of falling NG prices is that their costs are down - I don’t know if they are passing the savings on to customers. An exporting business would be interesting and I agree about shipping energy to Japan while they struggle with their nuclear power plants.</p>
<p>It isn’t a screaming buy to me but it’s interesting.</p>
<p>The most interesting thing about the company is the short ratio at over 25!!!</p>
<p>This stock is surprisingly volatile for the business that it’s in.</p>
<p>The long-term chart shows a very interesting picture. Stock price doubled between 2000 to the beginning of 2007 and then spiked 25% in early 2007. Since then, it’s traded in a range $40 and $52 for almost five years. Technically, the last five years has been a rectangle consolidation and the price target on a breakout would be around $70 to $75 but this is on a very long term scale. Not a bad play to buy the bottom of the current range and just collect the dividends while waiting for a breakout. This seems to be a buy it and forget about it kind of stock.</p>
<p>“The dividend is priced in Canadian dollars so when the US Dollar goes up against the
Canadian dollar, the dividend goes down.”</p>
<p>so perhaps this trade should be used in combo with a currency trade?</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>That’s too much work for me.</p>
<p>The strength of the dollar is a reflection of the problems in Europe and a flight to quality. We have our own problems but we have a financial system where it is easy to move a lot of money in and out. I am not the most efficient of traders and investors out there - I’m just looking for a decent return with low risk and PVX has been that for me for quite some time. I used to play others like SJT and HGT but I got lazy in following them and just piled most of my energy play money into PVX - it’s easier to just watch one company. I probably should look at more but I’ve been spending a lot more time on fitness and health than investing and the dividends there are far more important than the stuff that I do in the markets.</p>
<p>NWN.
My old retail broker said that NWN is viewed as a producer because it has big underground storage. It buys when gas is cheap and when there is pipeline capacity and sells conversely. They have a LNG plant at Port of Newport, far end of one of their branches. </p>
<p>We are a public utility regulatory state. But pipeline and storage are unregulated.</p>
<p>OR;
Gas, Electric, subscribers are down.
Driver’s licenses are down for each previous year (3).
No one is quite sure if there is a out migration or a combining of households or failure to register because of immigration status.
Of course state income tax revenues are down and legislature will have to come into session again to deal with shortfall (we were on biennial sessions).</p>
<p>BcEagle91…i looked at the PVX Jan 9 calls and I don’t see anything exciting there…</p>
![http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/8584/pvx.png[/url]](http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/8584/pvx.png%5B/url%5D){kind=link}
