<p>Better. Freight trains are longer. I’m seeing triple-trailer trucks again, for the first time in three years. UPS regional director says their shipments are up. Our sales are up. Our rate of random job applicants is down (way fewer walk-ins asking if we have “any work at all”).</p>
<p>The slight drop in our unemployment rate here is not a result of job creation, but of people giving up and exhausting their unemployment benefits.</p>
<p>“Mini,
I guess I never thought that the top 10% or 20% could so easily swamp stores and malls, and fill hotels/resorts… Has our the overall population grown that much? Anyway, anecdotes and personal experiences are unreliable, but this is apparently a common phenomenon.”</p>
<p>According to national data, only 24% of Americans shopped on Friday. Many of them might be low-income, looking for bargains. And, yes, the top 20% are buying appliances, and there are also folks fighting for $2.00 waffle irons. (what’s with THAT?)</p>
<p>Last year, strange as it may seem, the Nat’l Assoc. of Retailers reported a 5.2% increase for the Holiday Season.</p>
<p>Somehow the Black Friday sales set a new all time record ($$$), and that was not due to inflated prices. Sales were up 7% compared to last year. Considering the fact that the only thing I bought this weekend was DD’s airfare and I still have to shop (as well as many of my friends who are definitely in the top 20%), we will see more mall/ web shopping traffic later in the holiday season.</p>
<p>It is a mixed bag, for sure, but as I understand, pet adoptions are up. That is a good sign.</p>
<p>Did I hear this right on 60 Minutes, that 25% of kids in America are living in poverty? And 1/4 of them are living in Florida?
And that the longevity of unemployment continues to lengthen, already at record levels, causing a record number of kids to be homeless?</p>
<p>I got the overall message that things are very very bad, and not getting better, perhaps getting worse. But I may have the stats wrong. </p>
<p>Many kids in Florida now live in cars, if they are lucky. Eat cold foods out of cans. Wash up at gas stations and other public bathrooms. Worry about security every night and hardly sleep. Try to park near a place with a public toilet for use during the night.</p>
<p>The show pointed to the construction industry in Florida as being particularly hard hit.</p>
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<p>This. Exactly.</p>
<p>I think it is doing good for the rich. Here in Ohio, we have a governor that believes the rich and corps. need tax cuts and Medicare / Medicaid reimbursement is SLASHED.</p>
<p>I work in long term care. They just took our two personal days away from us, cancelled the Christmas party, raised health ins. , switched to washcloths instead of wipes, etc… No raises. Our nursing assistants average $10/hour and can’t afford health ins. so they either work less and go on Medicaid, or don’t have it and use the ER as their primarily physician.</p>
<p>It is not getting better for working and middle class.</p>
<p>And yeah, our house is worth at least $20,000 less than when we purchased it in 2004. If we were able to sell it we would maybe get $10,000.</p>
<p>Fun times.</p>
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<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=13509143[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=13509143</a></p>
<p>The consumer is stable and spending a little more which is extremely important for a healthy economy. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, China continues to manipulate their currency to undermine our industrial base and grow their economy at our expense. China continues to steal technology from American companies to grow their economy at our expense. American continue to buy Chinese stuff because it is cheap and they could care less about their own economy.</p>
<p>wbow & DocT:
what are the reasons for your negative prognostications?</p>
<p>Isn’t DocT short every index possible, except maybe gold?</p>
<p>I think ones opinion depends quite a bit upon where they live and where they spend their time. Things seem pretty bright where I live, malls are as packed as ever, restaurants are busy. Whole Foods, PCC, and REI are always busy. There are plenty of people out there spending just as much money as ever. I don’t think the job market took as much of a dive in my area as most, particularly for people in technology professions, and those with a lot of education. </p>
<p>Then again, if I spent much time at food banks, homeless shelters and the unemployment office I might see those were packed also. It really seems like the country is getting split in two (no, none of the 99%/1% garbage). But those who kept their jobs, are now living a more frugal lifestyle because of the fear over the last few years, benefited by lower interest rates and cost of living staying low. And those who lost their jobs struggling to pay the bills, losing their homes, moving in with family, disappearing from sight.</p>
<p>busdriver, I agree about the split. That’s going to be the real long-term damage of this period: We’re losing the wide, broad middle class.</p>
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<p>That has been happening slowly over the last few decades, but most people have not really noticed or cared about it until recently.</p>
<p>Perhaps of greater concern is the lessening of economic mobility over the decades.</p>
<p>Sometimes people get “Frugality Fatigue,” and if they’re gonna briefly bust out, they might choose to do so on “Black Friday” hoping for deals or just trying to experience excitement.</p>
<p>And then a few layers up, people are choosing to go out to restaurants all the time and forego the family trip to Europe. This might be more a matter of economic caution and fear of seeming ostentatious.</p>
<p>"Isn’t DocT short every index possible, except maybe gold? "</p>
<p>I’m now net neutral after last Friday. When you see that it was the worse Thanksgiving week since 1932, its time to get out of negative positions. There’s no way that anything will be worse than 1932. I’m not invested in gold.</p>
<p>No question that it is worse in my area. I see people selling their personal belongings on the side of the street. We have a retail store that took a hit back in 2008 …we struggled but made it through and even saw some increase in business , though we had to adjust our sails and stock lower priced inventory than what we normally would have.
Our major suppliers are seeing their sales drop…all over the country
And people call us trying to sell us their items for quick cash more and more frequently. While my husband has offered to consign their goods , the answer is no , I need to pay the rent / mortgage …</p>
<p>Malls are not crowded…restaurants are struggling and sending out emails to get you in the door</p>
<p>Businesses are folding , construction is at a standstill
Homes are not selling
Two homes on my street are in the process of foreclosure , and I see BANK OWNED signs outside many residences</p>
<p>People seem to be losing hope when I hear them talk</p>
<p>Here in the burbs of Philly, restaurants are crowded, malls packed…from the surface, it looks very good…but when taking a hard look around, one sees many vacancies of commercial properties,housing stagnant,though if priced to sell, it will…many families have maintained income power by having spouse return to the workforce…Most everyone i know has a house cleaning service and landscapers,so how bad can it be?</p>
<p>People complain all the time about tuition costs, yet if any of the top 100 universities said anyone willing to pay full tuition is accepted, the line would stretch for blocks…</p>
<p>After several years of frugality, many people who were not hurt by the recession, have begun to spend again…</p>
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<p>Where are you located?</p>
<p>Prices are continuing to rise ( but not wages), however homes are selling and construction has started up.</p>
<p>It really just depends on where you are sitting.</p>