For the most part, your child’s chances depend on his/her record and the app package they submit. Of course, you want to know how best to approach any target, especially holistics, so you can do your best. Not assume you just submit a transcript and answer questions. You want them to want you. for all the reasons that matter to them.
First, is the record you do collect, through those years, and your self presentation. Later, as they refine the class, instutional needs apply. That includes geo diversity.
Just submitting doesn’t assure you even get to the final rounds. It feels premature to suggest a yield issue, when the first hurdle is making your own best apps. And, knowing what that means.