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<p>Well, mombee has the right idea, but the wrong explanation. If they predict the # “almost exactly”, they’ve been almost lucky. All they can do is predict a range with standard deviations. It’s like the weather …the more history put into the computer, the more likely the weather will be as predicted. But there is no sense of exactness, as anyone watching the weather discovers, and Memphis is right in the way precision and the end # is achieved is in the final 60-90 days, watching how many offers are declined, using the wait list, and nursing it home.</p>
<p>And of course, these patterns will become increasingly less predictable as USNA purposefully alters the mix of information being entered into their equation. Simply said, for the future, this is (as we saw last year) and will be less predictable, not more so, due to the new rules and dual track admissions process.</p>
<p>In other words, whatever has been the equation, no longer is. It’s a new game.</p>
<p>GO NAVY! 
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