<p>vicarious: Actually, my kids attended two very different schools, one a top private that sends about 40% of its class to Ivies or the equivalent year-in and year-out, and the other a large public magnet. The private school has exquisite counselling, and Harvard and Yale each get 10-15 applications per class (many from legacies), with 2-3 kids generally accepted at one or both of them. For the most part, HY pick the “right” kids to accept, but the results are just random enough so that it’s impossible to say that there aren’t 20+ kids per class with a legitimate shot. (For example, in one class, the consensus most intellectual kid, a Yale legacy, was accepted at Harvard and Princeton but not Yale, the kid with the best grades was rejected at HYP and accepted at Stanford, and Yale and Princeton each took one completely unhooked, normal-smart kid who were indistinguishable to the naked eye from any of the other good students. Each of HYP had 4-6 legacies in the top quintile of the class, none of whom was accepted at his legacy college.) </p>
<p>At the public school, the four counselors’ main job is to make certain that all 500+ graduates get into a college somewhere they can afford to attend. The best students are told to apply to Penn and that they really should consider LACs, and otherwise left alone to counsel each other based on folklore. At that school, too, usually 2-3 kids/year are accepted at one or both of H/Y, always from the top 6-7 ranked students. Because results seem more predictable, they only get 8-10 applications per class, almost all from students who will be attending another Ivy (or equivalent) if they are not accepted there. </p>
<p>I don’t doubt that Harvard and Yale get a bunch of very unrealistic applications, but nothing in what I have observed on the ground suggests to me that their standard line that only about 20% of their applications fall into that category is way off.</p>