<p>@ Sakky:</p>
<p>After spending a year in a lab, I think any reasonable undergrad should be able to write an A-level paper. Remember, this is engineering, not pure mathematics. So you can, and actually often have, reasonably smart students who have gotten very lucky with collected data. Often, in an established lab, undergrads will just copy the lines that graduate students and postdocs take. Thus, research potential, as evaluated at the undergrad level is “soft” because its often a function of:</p>
<p>a) mentoring strength. Most undergrads I know of just follow a grad student around and do the grunt work. Because of their grunt work they often get a publication.
b) which lab the undergrad chooses to join
c) the element of luck in research, which is always there.</p>
<p>Finally, another indication that a high upper division GPA itself is tantamount to research potential is that many/most upper-division engineering classes at Berkeley have you write a paper that comprises the bulk of your grade. This paper is in journal format and is graded by a research professor. So GPA, especially the upper-div GPA that programs look at, is highly correlated with research potential at a research school like Berkeley. </p>
<p>By the way, students are accepted at top programs without any publications, and often with very little research experience. This happens quite often actually, because these students have very high GPAs at top schools. </p>
<p>For what its worth a lab technician who graduated Berkeley 3 years ago and has been doing fulltime postbac research with 2 first-author publications in A-level journals was only accepted to the same school he had done the postbac research in due to grades. If he had better grades, he would have been in anywhere.</p>
<p>Regardless, I generally agree with you, in that there is some flex for brilliant candidates who have proven themselves through research. However, a poor GPA will not get a candidate into a top program, no matter the strength of his research, unless he back-doors/networks his way in by meeting a professor at a conference and having that professor push for him.</p>