<p>To be clear, I agree once you obtain top quality publications reflective of PhD level work, you are sort of done, but I think in theoretical fields, the percentage is much less than 2. In fact, this is clear from how few people get into the top theory grad programs. I know for a fact most people at those do not even have top publications, and some none at all. And there are only a few top programs, each taking a tiny number of students.</p>