<p>My post is based on what every prof I have ever met and spoken to has said, all of whom have been on search committees. Publication record is not all that matters. Institutions frown tremendously on academic inbreeding. I wouldn’t bet my career on there being a position open in my field and subfield the very year I earn my PhD, and they aren’t going to create a new position just for you.</p>
<p>How much you did in undergrad is entirely besides the point. Unis want you to have experienced different environments and viewpoints. Also, most people who go on to grad school do quite a bit of research at their undergrad - at least a thesis. I did a 35 pg thesis based almost entirely on primary sources, and I only went to a small regional LAC.</p>
<p>I don’t know of any great researchers who have been at their institutions since they were 17, at least not any that were hired in the last 25 years. The culture is what it is. But certainly speak to several profs at different universities to get their opinions. Perhaps you can post on the Chronicle of Higher Education Forums - there is a grad school one, and you can get the opinion of the very people who will be looking at your resume in the future.</p>