“She is saying that because of Berkley’s location and academics it will be easier to get a high paying job after graduation to pay debt. Is she right?”
No, not really. Berkeley’s reputation will help a little bit to get job interviews. However, given you stats up to now, if you keep doing as well in school, and if you graduate, then you are going to be able to get a job where ever you go to university. Whether you will be able to afford to finish university, and whether you will ever be able to pay off your loans after (or without) graduation, are entirely different and perhaps more relevant questions.
“Total loans over 4 years = ~$200k”
"I just spoke with them over dinner. Figured out that out of salary, my parents can pay $15,000 for each of us. So with the $39,000 cost for Rochester, it’s a $24,000 annual loan. My dad doesn’t want to use his retirement funds, so he says that he is going to second mortgage the house. With my $3,500 loan, it’s a $20,500 annual loan for the parents. Times two kids, times two kids, its 164k, not including inflation. "
IMHO that is way too much, and will make graduate school impossible.
“we bought our house exactly six years ago. It costed 750,000 but we owe more than that because of interest from mortgage. My dad pays 4,000 or so on it every month.”
In this case, there is almost no chance that your parents will be able to get a second mortgage to help to finance your university costs. If your dad is not able to get ahead quickly on the mortgage, then there is no way that he should take on any additional debt.
“At some point, the bank will say no… Debt with a degree is one thing. Debt without a degree is another.”
This is a very important point and is my concern also.
I think that many people have said the same thing over and over again. As such I will post this reply and stop. However, to me it appears that the finances don’t work for you. How this will play out if you go to Berkeley or Rochester is hard to predict. However, to me the four realistic “most likely” scenarios are approximately the following:
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You go to Berkeley. You run up a large debt and run out of money to the point that you are not able to complete four years, probably do not complete three years, and do not graduate. At this point it might or might not be possible for you to afford to finish your degree at the University of Hawaii. You will be paying off debt for MANY years, possibly for decades.
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You go to Rochester. You might still run out of money and have to withdraw before graduation. However there is some chance that you might be able to pull it off and graduate with a very large debt. Assuming that your grades continue through university (and noting that university is likely to be significantly more difficult than high school), you will probably be able to get a job in your field and eventually pay off the debt, but it will take a long time. There is no way that you will be able to afford to go to graduate school.
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You go to the University of Hawaii. You graduate after 4 years with no debt. At this point you go to a “big name” university in the mainland 48 states and get a Master’s degree. The debt is much smaller than with the above options, and you have a prestigious Master’s degree (rather than just a Bachelor’s degree).
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You take a gap year and apply next year to universities with “affordability” being a primary concern.
At this point it is up to you and your parents. In one of your posts you mentioned “Operations Research”. I will note that I personally took a path pretty close to option 3: A Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics with no debt, then a one-year Master’s degree from Stanford in Operations Research. I paid half of the cost of the Master’s from savings, and took on debt for the other half. Total debt was the cost of 1/2 year of university. This was a lot less when I did it, but even today a debt equivalent to 1/2 year of university is something that you can handle with a Master’s degree in a practical engineering or business field. I will note that to have a chance to get into a Master’s degree program (whether M.Sc. or MBA) at Berkeley or Stanford you will need to be pretty much the number 1 best student who applies to that program from the entire state of Hawaii that year. Given your stat’s this seems like it might be possible (and if not at Stanford or Berkeley, then very likely at another “big name” university).