Naviance is tricky because you can’t tell which students were hooked or what majors they applied to.
I personally think it’s better to use a school’s acceptance rate as a guide for creating the safety/match list.
Anything under 30% we put in the reach category. 20 -50% match. The two safeties on my D’s list were above 70% acceptance rates and one had rolling admission so she had a very early acceptance.
IMO, you don’t want to overestimate chances for the safeties and matches. And safeties should be a sure thing.
I just read a blog post from GT’s admission guy (posted on the UMich thread) that he considers any school with 33% acceptance or lower to be highly selective/reach.