Bad news:
Your grades and class rigor are low for Duke and since grades are the best indicator for success in college, adcoms will notice this. 95% of Duke’s freshman class is top 10% for their high school rank. Are you within that range?
Since you are applying ED, they will only see 1st quarter senior year grades so waiting to take 4 APs senior year might not have been the best strategy.
Do you have four years of a foreign language, 4 years of a science, 4 years of english language/composition, and 4 years of math?
Duke would want to see AP Calc (either A/B or B/C). You are taking AP Stats instead?
I would try to get that 28 ACT subscore up into the low 30’s.
I don’t see any “wow” factor. How are you going to make Duke a better place and how are you going to contribute to the college. I think you need to show this.
Good news:
IMO, less students will be applying early decision to Duke this fall as families were not able to visit the campus this year and will be reluctant to apply to a binding admission especially with the uncertainty of CV-19.
Last year’s ED acceptance rate was 21%. I would not be surprised if this year it’s close to 30%. Still not great odds, especially when you factor in all of the “hooked” applicants but probably your best shot. They also historically defer 10% of the ED applicants who will get another shot at acceptance in regular decision.
In summary:
Just for comparison my D20 was accepted ED last fall and had 9 AP classes, 4.0 uGPA (4.6 wGPA), 34 ACT, elected position as student school district board rep, academic decathlon, V athlete, and top 5% high school, great LORs including one from teacher who was a Duke grad, and some social action advocacy in Washington D.C.
My D has befriended many Duke freshman already and they all seem to be very, very accomplished. These will be the students you are competing against.
With that said, give it your best shot and have a good mix of reach, match and safety colleges on your list. Good luck to you!