Duke LAX case discussion continued.....;)

Parent Cafe
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<p>Duke took a big hit in number of applications received. All things being equal, they should have expected a significant increase in applications just to keep pace with the rising tide of applicants. To experience an absolute decrease in this environment is rather remarkable. </p>

<p>…and that was before this last letter. </p>

<p>Yield numbers could now really tank. How does Duke win a cross admit? “Why go to Duke when you could come here to WELUVU. Our faculty actually like and respect our students.”</p>

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<p>“Duke took a big hit in number of applications received.”</p>

<p>Ummm…Less than one half of one percent is a big hit? :confused:</p>

<p>Any idea what the overall numbers at Dartmouth look like? It looks like the ED applications were down. Apparently Dartmouth had some bad press too.</p>

<p><a href=“http://www.thedartmouth.com/article…=2007010401010%5B/url%5D”>http://www.thedartmouth.com/article…=2007010401010</a></p>

<p>As I said earlier, I have not seen any other numbers released from admission offices, but it will be interesting to see how they all look before any conclusions are made. :rolleyes:</p>

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<p>If that link doesn’t open, go to <a href=“http://www.thedartmouth.com%5B/url%5D”>www.thedartmouth.com</a>, and type in “applicant numbers” in search.</p>

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<p>from the other thread</p>

<p>Middlebury up 13%
Hamilton up 16%
Columbia up 6.7%
Northeastern up 7% plus
Stanford up 10% plus
Cornell up 7.5%
UCLA up 75 plus
Binghamton up 23%
BC up 9% plus
Colby up 9%
Georgetown up 8%
Harvey Mudd up 15%
Carnegie Mellon up 30%</p>

<p>no other school is down</p>

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<p>Not to mention that Duke accepted 500 applications after Jan 9. And OT is right - if apps are down (relative to peer schools), cross-admits will likely be down as well.</p>

<p>I’d guess there is a pretty intense discussion regarding yield management going on about now.</p>

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<p>I believe the numbers posted from the other thread (and pasted above) were based on early application numbers. We will wait to see the final numbers when published by the schools. I have no idea where the numbers above came from. </p>

<p>Again, the last two posters seem intent on somehow demonstrating that a half of one percent is significant. I’m not sure why.</p>

<p>By the way, the Dartmouth numbers were down so far! So the statement that “no other school is down” is absurd.</p>

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<p>I haven’t had access to the reporting of the case by the Duke Chronicle, but K.C. Johnson has high praise for it.</p>

<p>Is it true that hostile quotes by the Duke faculty were entered by the defense in support of their request for a change of venue? I’d laugh if it weren’t so sad.</p>

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<p>1sokkermom</p>

<p>If I have offended you in some way, I am sorry. However, where you are coming from baffles me.</p>

<p>1) Nowhere did it say that those were early application numbers nor were they represented as such on the other thread. Certainly Duke’s weren’t. Why you continue to make this assumption is puzzling. To the extent that any of these ARE early app numbers, I would agree with you that waiting for the regular admissions numbers makes sense. However, where overall numbers are already up 7% or more on a preliminary basis (because all the apps haven’t been counted - applications received after the deadline for example), waiting for the final numbers is not necessary.</p>

<p>2) Anyone going through the college application process has been beaten over the head with the fact that right now there are more applicants submitting more applications every year than ever before and that this will continue to be the case each year through 2011. This rising tide should lift all boats - i.e. applications should be expected to rise at all schools. </p>

<p>3) This is why “a half of one percent” decrease in absolute terms is significant.
Look at it this way. You invest in an equity mutual fund which gains 1/2% in a year when the market doubles. That fund significantly underperformed.<br>
How about another fund that lost a 1/2% when the market lost 30%. That fund significantly outperformed.</p>

<p>As to why drb and I have been intent on pointing this out? Because this -</p>

<p>“And updated application numbers from the admissions office seem to confirm the impression that Duke’s image has not suffered with college counselors, prospective applicants or their parents, Guttentag said.”</p>

<p>is disingenuous at best. The numbers don’t confirm that at all. Rather, the numbers suggest the opposite.</p>

<p>3) As for your continued references to Dartmouth, do you not like green? :slight_smile: </p>

<p>a) The Dartmouth numbers you cite clearly ARE early application numbers which we both agree are not particularly relevant. Thus, continuing to use them as a basis for rendering a statement of mine “absurd” could be construed as both pointless and hypocritical.<br>
b) What “bad press” did Dartmouth receive that could in any way compare to the treatment of the lax players by the Durham authorities, Duke faculty and Duke administration? Some sorority girls got drunk on pledge night? Nope - sounds like a Saturday night in Chappaqua (actually so did the lax party) There was a demonstration against the Review? Nope - really old news. This has been going on for at least 25 years. The Review will survive. Read “Poisoned Ivy” by Ben Hart '81.
c) If Dartmouth’s overall numbers ARE down, then that will be something they will have to look at. Their numbers should be up just as everyone else’s should.</p>

<p>I have no horse in this race. The conduct of the “authorites” has simply appalled me. The latest faculty letter appears to me to be the cherry on top of an admissions nightmare sundae. If your son was not already at Duke and instead he was being recruited by both Duke and say UVA (or some other quality school) this year, would you not be leaning towards the “not Duke” on the menu? I know I would be and believe there are plenty of other parents thinking the same thing. It is not surprising to me that the application numbers are down - and I would guess that the yield numbers on cross admits will likely be much worse. Perhaps the financial aid awards this year will be significantly increased to try to compensate.</p>

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<p>OT:</p>

<p>Thank you for your thoughtful response. I have no horse either. Depending on what day of the week, I would say more of a donkey or maybe even a jacka$$. :)</p>

<p>I think that the original discussion was whether Duke saw a statistically significant decline in applications this year because of the scandal. In my opinion, the verdict is still out. I think that when a school receives over 19,000 applications, there will be normal deviations from year to year.</p>

<p>The fact that a small LAC in Maine may increase applicant numbers from maybe 3000 to 3300, and boast a 10% increase may not be significant or relevant at all. The purpose of the discussion was not to compare schools and thus determine their popularity or perceived quality based on applicant numbers.</p>

<p>By the way, I really like Dartmouth. However, schools like Dartmouth, Yale, Penn, (and maybe Duke) may just be seeing normal fluctuations. I read somewhere that because the accepted student profiles from prior years are published by these institutions, it may be that this year’s applicants chose not to apply to certain institutions and “waste” an application, because they think that their chances of acceptance are perceived to be very slim. Who knows?</p>

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<p>Perhaps more relevant than a small LAC in Maine: </p>

<p>From today’s Brown Daily Herald:
“Regular decision applications increased more than 4.3 percent over last year, from 15,937 to 16,644 received to date.”</p>

<p>From BC’s The Heights:
“Though the admissions office, still in the grueling process of data entry that follows the Jan. 1 deadline for applications, has yet to report the total number of applications received, John Mahoney, director of undergraduate admissions, says that the figure is close to 29,000.This number shows an eight percent increase in applications from last year,” </p>

<p>the hoya:
“The admissions office will consider more than 16,000 applications for regular admission to the Class of 2011 this year, a record number of applications to Georgetown that marks an 8 percent increase over the size of last year’s pool.”</p>

<p>etc.etc</p>

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<p>Nicely laid out argument Odysseytigger.</p>

<p>I agree with his point about cross admits. Someone who is accepted at Duke probably has the stats to be accepted at other top notch schools. The handling of this debacle would certainly come into discussion at my home when it came time to make a commitment. It isn’t going to help their case. </p>

<p>In some ways this is like Tulane’s situation last year. It’s a great school, but do you want your kid to possibly be affected by another Katrina? Realistically, it is very unlikely that another hurricane will hit that spot in the Gulf - but there is a chance, and do you want your child to take it?</p>

<p>Duke will fill their freshman class. It will be interesting to see if the scores and stats across the board are affected. As Odyssey said above, I am sure they are having a heck of a time trying to figure out their numbers to ensure yield.</p>

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<p>The class of 2008 at Princeton saw a 14% decline in the number of applicants from the previous year. I think Dartmouth saw a 1% decline that year. However, I think the numbers bounced back the following year. (The only reason I know this is that kid #1 is in the class of 2008, and I remember reading this.) I don’t know if they ever determined why. I also remember that the class of 2008 was a banner year for applicants at Yale at that time. </p>

<p>I agree with drb that schools like BC and Georgetown are getting more “popular” with more kids because of their locations.</p>

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<p>The hearing that had been scheduled for Monday February 5 has been delayed until May or indefinitely (depending on which source you credit). </p>

<p>

</p>

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<p>We’ll never know, of course, but it’s entirely possible that it will take longer for this case to be resolved without Nifong than it would have taken with him. </p>

<p>In his comments in his last (I think) New York Times interview, Nifong emphasized that if, at the upcoming court hearing, the complaining witness indicated that she could not be certain if these were the guys, he would dismiss the case. One possible interpretation of this (very unusual) comment is that he was looking for a way out and was, in effect, pointing the way for the complaining witness. </p>

<p>Now, of course, it would be irresponsible (among other things) for the new prosecution team to do anything until they have become thoroughly familiar with the case. And that will take time.</p>

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<p>epistrophy,</p>

<p>Is there anything that the accuser can do in the next three months to “polish” or solidify her story regarding the line-up procedure?</p>

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<p>1sokkermom:</p>

<p>To be honest, I don’t at the moment have much of a command of the details relating to this issue. However, my hunch, based on my somewhat fuzzy recollection, is that the issues raised by the defense challenge to the line-up focus much more on what the police said and did than they do on what the complaining witness said and did. And my assumption is that the discovery materials provided the defense with the ammunition they believed they needed to make this challenge - meaning, I would think, that the prosecution is likely pretty much “locked in” with respect to the facts relating to the procedures that were employed here. (Someone else may be able to chime in here with a more informed response to your question.)</p>

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<p>^ Thanks. I never really understood what was going to happen at the Feb. 5 hearing. The news articles have consistently stated that the accuser would be appearing at that time.</p>

<p>From today’s Fox News: "The accuser in the case was expected to appear at the Feb. 5 hearing and defense attorneys planned to ask Superior Court Judge W. Osmond Smith III to throw out her photo identifications of the defendants.</p>

<p>Legal experts have said without the woman’s photo identifications, prosecutors would probably have to dismiss the charges against players Dave Evans, Reade Seligmann, and Collin Finnerty."</p>

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<p>I just wanted to post part of an interview with Reade Seligmann’s attorney (this is the first interview this particular atty has given). This answer to the question of What has it been like for the parents and the lacrosse players really hit me. This sums up why I feel such an emotional pull to this case:</p>

<p>

</p>

<p>If that doesn’t give pause, I don’t know what would. :(</p>

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<p>Ag54, that’s truly horrifying. Thanks for posting that.</p>

<p>I almost wonder - especially after reading the last few posts - if Nifong didn’t toss the ball knowing full well that a whole new prosecution team would have to take some time to review everything, which would in turn prolong the agony of the families. I wonder if he’s that sadistic. After all he could have chosen to take responsibility, and dismissed the charges.</p>

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<p>AG54 - that quote certainly does put it in human perspective - really tugs at the parental heart strings.</p>