@bluedog: I called an official who is highly involved in managing the processes and selecting the undergraduates for Duke’s major merit-scholarship (I know this individual very well, we are close friends, and know she would never mislead me). She emphasized two key facts:
- It really is a “fair shake,” every admitted student who meets the scholarship’s criteria is evaluated honestly, regardless of ED or RD acceptance.
- About a third (she did not have a precise number) of the recipients are ED admits, which isn’t too far from what I’d estimate is the last (say) seven classes’ ED percentage (approximately 40%).