The question is not whether an unhooked applicant has a better shot at admission by applying early with a weak application that doesn’t meet the standards of the school. If s/he submits the same strong application, does s/he have a better chance if s/he applies early? Many colleges say no, but evidences indicate otherwise (with a few exceptions such as MIT). We won’t know for certain unless the colleges release more detailed data on the applicant pools. The colleges prefer you apply early to their colleges. But even if you didn’t, they still want you to apply in RD. They want it both ways and the ambiguity helps them.