@GraciousViper: My data is out of date now but the trend continues, so I’ll post. Our son went to Choate and Michigan was on his list (top of ours actually as we’re alums). Michigan has become increasingly competitive and fiercely protects its yield. Choate is well known to U-M and presents quality candidates but, too often, those applicants are using Michigan as a backstop for other schools and Michigan won’t play that game. Naviance for 2008-2014 looked like this:
Class Apply Admit Enroll
2014 40 16 3
2013 29 4 0
2012 17 4 1
2011 25 5 0
2010 26 14 3
2009 17 8 3
2008 21 11 0
There have been too many zero/low-enrollment years. In 2014, Michigan was generous with admits, but got burned on enrollments; this history made it tough for our son’s class of 2015. His GC told him that there is no love lost between U-M and Choate and that if he really wanted to attend, he’d have to commit to the First Choice list (Mich doesn’t do ED) and write a burning letter of desire to the U-M reader for his school indicating that if he were accepted, he would definitely attend. If he could convince his GC that Michigan really was his first choice, she would go to bat for him; otherwise, he shouldn’t even apply.
Just thought I’d share that anecdote. Carry on.