<p>I don’t know specifically, but based on what I remember from browsing the results thread, defers are the most common.</p>
<p>I don’t know about the chances and whether it depends on anything. Honestly, I recommend that you not worry over details about this. Apply early if you are ready because at least there is an “apparent” higher likelihood. If you don’t feel your application is ready, apply during the regular round. If you try to worry about all these different scenarios, you will go crazy!</p>