Every year there is at least one report that an ED applicant received a merit scholarship, so we know it does happen. I strongly suspect that an ED applicant’s chances of receiving merit aid depend on whether they are full pay or dependent on financial aid. A full pay student who is accepted ED must attend. The school has absolutely no incentive to give them merit aid. In fact, one could argue it would be irresponsible for the school to give merit aid to a full pay ED student since there would be no benefit to the school. For a top ED applicant who can only attend with financial aid, however, the calculus for the school would appear to be different. Once a decision has been made to admit the student ED, I assume the financial aid blinders come off. The school knows it will be giving the student enough money to attend one way or the other, so the disincentive to award merit aid does not exist in the same way. The award just comes from a different pot. And, as pointed out above, there are benefits to the school in doing this as it perpetuates the belief that ED applicants do not forfeit their chances at merit aid. So in my view, if you are full pay you likely take yourself out of the running for merit aid if you apply ED. If you are requesting financial aid you likely still have a shot.