Hard to say, @friendfiend. All else equal, ED gives you the edge, of course, but other factors are in play such as stats, fit, essays, and the size of the applicant pool(s). One thing that anecdotally appears consistent is the large number of EA applicants relative to ED, if you and OP are correctly observing the choices at your respective schools. Do you have additional info. such as how many applied EA last year at your school, whether anyone switched to EDII, why that one EA was admitted (hook of some kind)? That might give you some idea of how it will play out this year. Last year UChicago accepted twice as many EDI’s as EA’s despite what looked to be a smaller EDI pool (at least based on the Early Results thread), which obviously threw a significant advantage to the binding option. And reports are that they chose at least 50% more binding than non-binding overall. So it’s reasonable to think they will throw the advantage again to EDI and EDII, (2:1? 1.5:1?) as long as “quality” hasn’t changed.