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<p>I agree largely with what you said, but I wouldn’t say the 10% overall admit rate is as relevant to the OP since he/she is applying ED, which gives a slight boost and has ~30% acceptance rate. I think your chances are probably about that. I agree not being in the top 10% could hurt (so close!) and that you list a lot of ECs, but need one or two of them to truly stand out and demonstrate passion.</p>
<p>And while everybody says the interview doesn’t matter much (if any), I’ve seen stats from Guttentag that demonstrate a pretty decent correlation between high interview scores and acceptance. I’m not saying it’s causation (i.e. the interview score itself didn’t necessarily gain the applicant admission). It’s likely that the best candidates in other facets will also impress alumni interviewers and the interview simply reinforces other aspects of the application, but I found it interesting nonetheless.</p>
<p>Good luck!</p>