<p>That poster Mr. Tubbz (Michael Tubbs) is truly inspirational. Google him if you’re so inclined.</p>
<p>Data10, unimpressive academic record + low test scores + no hooks + no special talents/achievements + from an over-reprensented area is a lot to overcome. Congrats! a unique life story plus a great essay does do it occasionally and that’s why they call it “holistic review”. More often than not though, the life story works better for those who overcome obstacles and achieve more than their peers with even better circumstances.</p>
<p>My earlier post only referenced being in the lower 25% of test scores – not low test scores + unimpressive academic record + no noteworthy talents/achievements + an overrepresented area. The more additional factors you put in, the less likely it is to occur. </p>
<p>We also see posts from lower test score, non-hook acceptances who get in without incredible life stories. Just yesterday a parent posted in the Stanford forum about her non-hook daughter being accepted with a 1890 SAT and 29 ACT. The post is at <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/16184021-post15.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/16184021-post15.html</a> . It sounds like she went to a small, rural, “unknown” public school… the type that has been discussed in this thread. She had an excellent academic record, aside from only taking one honors/AP course, since only one was available at her school; and she had noteworthy talents with winning state level awards in Future Farmers of America and likely dance (basing on poster’s username); but I did not see anything to suggest an incredible life story. While not a minority, she obviously added to the campus diversity in other ways, with her farming background. I suspect that if we could see the full app, there would be some other extremely impressive areas, such as LORs and essays. I’m not saying it happens often, but it does happen.</p>
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<p>It’s not impossible, of course, but I would argue that for unhooked applicants, it is harder than you are making it out to be. Your daughters defeated the odds – and I don’t doubt that they are exceptional students – but cruise the results threads for any top-10 school and note how bloodbathy a 6% RD acceptance rate is in application.</p>
<p>There’s no need to be defeatist, but we should at least be humble enough to recognize that the adcoms could easily cherry-pick the classes of HYPSMC from the rejected and waitlisted masses.</p>
<p>Every aspect of life is at least partially determined by luck, and holistic review clearly takes the predictability out of admissions. It just seems ridiculously fortunate to go 3/3 when 92/100 applicants are rejected. </p>
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<p>According to [CollegeBoard[/url</a>], your daughter scored in the top 0.5% of the college-bound population. That score obviously won’t garner you de facto acceptance, but it does put you solidly in the top quartile of the student body, and, I would assume, the applicant pool. </p>
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<p>Not only that, I noticed that many of the low-SES kids that do have the SAT scores won’t apply because they don’t have the SAT II scores that most top-25 schools require.</p>
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<p>There are 1.6 million students who take the SAT and roughly another 1.6 million who take the ACT.</p>
<p>If you assume that all students take both tests then the top 5% consists of 80,000 individuals. So there are clearly more than 30,000 students looking to enter the nation’s elite colleges. Of course, not all of them really want to go to the Ivies.</p>
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<p>I would not assume anything near “all students take both tests.” There are several large states where it is required to take the ACT anyway as part of state testing requirements, and the SAT isn’t really on the radar screen (unless the student feels he / she would test better on the SAT). </p>
<p>And the “of course, not all of them really want to go to the Ivies” is where I continue to have a disconnect. Because it’s said in a way that suggests, “Oh, yeah, and there’s a few of them who aren’t interested in the Ivies.” I would really like to figure out some way of knowing what this number is. I think the % of high-stats students who <em>really aspire to the Ivies</em> is lower than some of you (coming from Ivyworship land) think. I would not discount the huge number of high-stat Californians who are happy to stay within the UC system, high-stat MI / WI / IL kids who are happy to go to their state flagships, high-stat TX kids who plan on UT, etc. Please note that my saying this is not a knock on or aspersion cast on the Ivies in any way, shape or form.</p>
<p>I read an article that stated 94% of students take both tests but that sounded very high to me. The point I was trying to make is that the MINIMUM number of students in the top 5% is 80,000. The true number is higher as there is not 100% overlap.</p>
<p>I see lots of high stat kids in FL going to U of FL. My son was a tippy top student and he didn’t apply to any Ivy league schools. Lots of his friends also didn’t apply to any Ivy league schools. Here in FL there isn’t the level of Ivy worship that I saw when I lived in NY and CT.</p>
<p>My youngest son is interested in some of the Ivies but he is also interested in Vanderbilt and Duke. Of course he is only a freshman so who knows what will happen as his high school career unfolds, but here in FL the top kids don’t necessarily aspire to Ivy league schools at the same rate as the New England/Middle Atlantic kids.</p>
<p>Nowhere near 94% take both tests. Central states tend to have more ACT test takers, and coastal states tend to have more SAT test takers. For example, Illinois has a 100% participation rate for ACT, but only 6% participation for SAT. In contrast, Delaware has a 100% participation rate for SAT, but only 13% for ACT.</p>
<p>I agree that 94% is not a good number for overlap. However, the 80,000 I calculuated above assumed that there was 100% overlap and thus is the smallest possible number for the top 5%.</p>
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<p>And among Midwestern states, Illinois is actually on the high side in the number of SAT-takers. In Michigan in 2012, only 4,833 college-bound HS seniors had taken the SAT at any point in their HS career, out of approximately 115,000 HS graduates in the state that year. But all 115,000 took the ACT.</p>
<p>The overlap group is quite small, but probably somewhat larger in SAT-dominant states where a fair number of college-bound students disappointed with their SAT scores also take the ACT, hoping to do better on an alternative test. This phenomenon is less common in ACT-dominant states where most SAT-takers are in a small group of aspirants to elite private colleges, mostly in the Northeast.</p>
<p>I’m not so sure that the top 5% is really the cutoff for reasonable likelihood of admission to super-selective schools, especially for unhooked applicants. See <a href=“http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/SAT-Percentile-Ranks-Composite-CR-M-W-2012.pdf[/url]”>http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/SAT-Percentile-Ranks-Composite-CR-M-W-2012.pdf</a>. I would also point out that not all of the top 5% of test scorers have top stats–many of them may not have the grades to realistically look at super-selective schools.</p>
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I believe that, but it doesn’t “matter”. Compared with other colleges, the HYP+ colleges are still the colleges that attract most out of state/out of region applicants, most of whom have high stats and a strong drive to succeed, enough to keep their admit rates at low single digit. And someone upthread pointed out that the number of such applicants seems to be associated with the existence of major metropolitan areas in a state. With consistent supply of relatively higher quality applicants from these areas and an increasingly strong international supply, I dont’ think the colleges feel the pressure that they may run out of out-of-region aspirants any time soon. They do try to extend their reach to more areas but that is a long term goal.</p>
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<p>In addition, I bet there are lots of teens who are at least plausible Ivy League applicants but who (along with their parents) read little about them and assume that a $60K list price means they would pay a $60K net price, even if their parents are middle class.</p>
<p>[studentPOLL:</a> Students Look at College Sticker Price](<a href=“http://www.artsci.com/studentpoll/v10n1/index.aspx]studentPOLL:”>StudentPOLL: Volume 10 | Issue 1 | Art & Science Group)</p>
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<p>Indeed. I agree. In fact, I would venture to guess that rather than 80,000 top applicants, there are closer to 40,000 that are reasonably competitive and 15,000 that are within likely range. Using the National Merit pool might provide a semi-accurate catalog of unduplicated applicants, although these students sometimes get lured away by merit scholarships. </p>
<p>The top 5% of SAT takers (a score of around 2060) sounds more like the bottom floor for the first quartile, which is partially reserved for the compellingly hooked applicants. I doubt many students get into Caltech or Harvey Mudd with a 2060. </p>
<p>For unhooked applicants, I would want to have a score in the 99th percentile (around 2200) + the perfect GPA to feel competitive. If you really want to be in range, the 99.5th percentile (around a 2300), seems to put you in range, although it didn’t help me. ;)</p>
<p>My impression (yes, just that and no data to back it up) is that in CA more people have the “tipsy-top schools or stay home” mentality. Reason being in both San Francisco and LA residents pay a good deal of tax and big bucks for housing. Many middle to upper middle class families sound better off based on income than they actually feel. When it’s time for college application, many such families may not qualify for or for much financial aid, so many choose to stay in the UC system. UCB and UCLA are particularly popular. However, in Bay area and part of LA in particular, the race for Harvard and Stanford IS intense. Out of H and S, Princeton is probably more appealing than Yale partly because of the abundance of STEM type students in this pool. Other Ivies and LACs in the east are for sure less appealing than to the east coasters.</p>
<p>I’m interested in this question of how many high school graduates there are each year who might realistically hope to gain admission to super-selective schools. Each of the Ivies gets around 30,000 applications (a bit more at Harvard and a couple of others, a bit less at Dartmouth). There are about 20,000 at MIT and Stanford. Since there are many students who don’t apply to all of these, this represents more than the highest number (which may be 35,000 at Harvard, or maybe it’s at Cornell, I’m not sure). On the other hand, we don’t know how many people apply to super-selective schools who, in fact, don’t have a realistic chance of admission.</p>
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<p>My wife is a volunteer worker in our high school’s College and Career Counseling office, and from what she says I’d say our large, mediocre suburban school produces about 4-5 graduates per year who have a realistic shot at very high end colleges. This from a graduating class that falls between 600-700 in size.</p>
<p>This is not to say that all five apply to the top schools each year. Many apply no higher than Berkeley and/or UCLA. But usually there is a kid or two or three who takes a shot at HYPSM. And often one or two of those who try will succeed.</p>
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<p>I would guess very few, at least based on our (anecdote) of one Calif public high school. The school is not that old, so the first few years it sent no one to the Ancient Eight. Then, when it became known, it routinely sends the top ~12 to the Ivies, MIT, & S, and another handful to top LACs. 550 in the senior class. ~40 NMSF’s (test-happy)</p>
<p>Over the past xx years, the Val has been accepted to H; but only the Val. However, that does not stop the 10 or so applicants from trying every year, (hoping to get struck by lighting); heck, B students even apply to H – some are even rejected by several UC’s. Our HS usually sends a few to Cornell, but 40+ end up applying. </p>
<p>Ignoring the hooked, it is readily clear that GPA makes all the difference, and those outside the top 5% had zero chance, but apply anyway.</p>
<p>@Hunt. Stanford gets almost 39,000 applications per year…not 20,000 like MIT. It dwarfs all other TOP TIER schools in applications…Cornell is not top tier…</p>
<p>@Benley. Here on the West Coast dropping the “S” bomb is sometimes more powerful than dropping the “H” bomb…times have changed.</p>
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<p>Really? I would be interested in seeing the numbers on this (normalized, of course, for size of region, which no one ever does). I have no reason to believe HYP’s applicant pool is any more broadly national than any other similar top school. All of these schools still draw most heavily from their parent region.</p>