http://emorywheel.com/incoming-freshmen-displace-rising-sophomores/
Okay, looks like you are referring to the article above. Having some spill over to an entire floor of a sophomore dorm shouldn’t impact retention. If the extra freshmen were sprinkled among sophomore dorms, then you might have a problem.
For now, you may be jumping the gun and you’ll know more when they either announce the size of class of 2022 or you hear sophomores start complaining about housing assignments.