@corbett, I suppose that unless we worked in the admissions office or at the college board, we will never know why the in-state admission rate has dropped so much. UM says that around 4.5% of in-state seniors are admitted, and that figure has not changed in 30 years. I suspect it is a combination:
- The quality of the upper slice of in-state seniors has improved. Michigan seniors are not only competing for admission to the top in-state publics , but for OOS schools, privates, as well and for scholarships. They 'know' that high GPA and an ACT composite score of around 34 is needed for scholarship consideration. The attitude of students has changed enormously over a generation (along with their helicopter parents). The number of kids with the highest ACT/SAT scores has been rising steadily; in 2009 663 kids had an ACT composite of 34-36, in 2016 it was 1298 even with a smaller graduating class. You can bet that 90% applied to Michigan.
- Michigan primary/secondary schools have improved. The disaster that was DPS has given way to better charter schools and overall, the quality of graduates has improved. Those charter students are now working their way into college.
- More in-state kids apply because Michigan is more affordable now due to better FA. More holistic admissions also encourage more students to apply rather than self-selecting to different schools.
- More guaranteed admits through targeting programs like HAIL leaves fewer spots for others, reducing the overall admission rate.
- Michigan underestimated the yield in previous years and is dropping the admit rate to compensate. Yield is probably rising because Michigan is a bargain compared to private and OOS peers.
- More people hate MSU :) , and Michigan sports are fun again with Brandon gone.