You’re not an “average good student”. You’re an average GREAT student. You will succeed wherever you go.
I’m surprised that you didn’t apply early enough to UMass to have heard from them by now, but I’m hoping honors college for you. I bet you already know this, but it’s worth pointing out that UMass Amherst is very nice, with great food and good dorms. Quality of life there is excellent. It is perfectly fine to wind up there, and unless money’s really no object for your family, or unless you expect fin aid to bring the cost of a private school down to the equivalent of or less than what you’d pay in-state for UMass, that’s probably your best bet.
Can you be at all more specific about what you want, career-wise? You want to be a mover and shaker in elections, polling, an academic economist, work on Wall Street? The reason I ask is that could focus where you might want to go. If you’re interested in politics, you want to be near a major city. Brandeis and Northeastern give you access to Boston city campaigns, and also to Boston state politics, and even senator/congressional campaigns for US rep/senators, since Boston is the major city for MA. If you’re out in a rural area, you’d have little to no access, really could only work on state rep or town campaigns.
You’d be a likely at Trinity in Hartford, and have access to CT state politics, since the CT state capitol is in Hartford. It’s in a crime-ridden area of Hartford, but the campus itself is nice, and safe.
I really doubt you’d get into Harvard. Dartmouth, maybe. I don’t know about Bowdoin and WIlliams, but honestly, other than Harvard, I don’t know why you’d want to go to these places, if you’re interested in politics, because they’re all in rural areas. If you just want an education, and are not interested in getting involved in politics during college, then you could go anywhere.
Think about what exactly you want to accomplish while in college, and then apply that to your list. You have about a week left to decide.
I’ve now read what you’ve written while I was composing my reply. UMass Amherst for you, all the way. Frankly, if you like to run, why not live where it’s beautiful, the air is clean, and the food is fantastic and healthy. Think of it this way - if it’s gonna cost you 30K/yr at UMass, and 80K/yr at a private, getting your degree from UMass will save your family about 200K! With what you want, why go anywhere else?