<p>There are so many assumptions in your hypothetical - many of them at variance with what I understand to be the facts - that it is hard to answer directly.</p>
<p>Suffice it to say that there are many sub-groups with differing admit rates, including males/females, legacies, facbrats, athletes and URMs - and it is possible that the admit rate for these groups, also, may differ depending on whether they are in the early pool, the deferred early applicant group, or lumped in with the lowly “regular” applicants.</p>
<p>It is likely that the early pool has a disproportionate number of legacies and jocks, but that the “regular” pool has a higher number/fraction of URMs.</p>
<p>In either case (if the authors of “The Early Admissions Game” are to be believed) applying early affords you a substantial advantage - whether or not you are “hooked.”</p>