@homerdog When our D17 applied to school two years ago, our thought processes followed similar paths to where you are now. In our case, set a budget limit that was less than full pay and had her apply to LACs where merit was possible. Even so, we will be paying more for college than the list price of our home. It can be mentally dissonant to contemplate spending such large sums after an adult lifetime of relative frugality. Yes, it’s a first world problem, and yes, it’s still a lot of money.
Regardless of price point, it is reasonable to ask if there is sufficient return on an investment of this magnitude, however you choose to measure it. It could be intangibles (the quality of the “life of the mind”) and/or more concrete measures (post graduation salaries or professional opportunities; strength of alumni network; opportunities for undergraduate research, etc)
We attempted some research about spending per student (when that information was available) and size of endowment relative to number of students. In the end, neither of those measures were consistently available or particularly useful. Often it was impossible (or simply too time consuming) to discern where the money went - upgrading facilities could mean new labs or plusher dorms; research monies might not trickle down to undergrads, etc.
FWIW, if it were me, I would focus on the following:
While your child may not have a firm choice of major (and even if he did, that could change), I would dig deep into faculty credentials and areas of specialization of possible majors. At a LAC, you want to make sure there’s enough depth for your kid. Are there enough faculty that he could still meet his academic goals if a key person went on leave? Is there a good age distribution? You don’t want a slew of retirements to coincide with your kid’s tenure at that school because it can take awhile to rebuild a department. For these reasons, my daughter focused on larger LACs.
Assuming equally good social and academic fit, I’d consider prestige and rank. This is not to cast aspersions on lower-ranked schools; there are many of excellent quality. However, if you’re full pay, might as well get the name to go with it. I suspect that faculty retention also would be better at higher-ranked schools.
Finally, I do think there is value added at selective LACs that justifies the cost. Those in the top 20 are likely to be more similar than different. My kid has really thrived at her LAC - interesting and challenging courses, engaged fellow students, dedicated faculty and undergraduate mentorship, and lots of leadership and skill-building opportunities. If your kid is thinking of graduate school, an investment in undergraduate tuition at a selective LAC can have multiplier effects in the form of competitive fellowships for graduate programs later on.
I hope that your kid will have enough enticing options by March or April to make the choice a difficult one! Best of luck!