But if the school is FAFSA only, it doesn’t really matter how much the non-custodial parent makes (for right now, and that’s how the current NPCs are set up). Remember to add in the $17k per year the mother is receiving in child support, so the child’s current family income with mother’s earnings and child support should be about $45k? You’ll have to guess on assets. It should give you a ballpark number for need based financial aid. If her income is $45k, the daughter probably won’t get a full Pell grant, and even for the years my kids got a full Pell grant, they didn’t receive anywhere near $4k as SEOG (I think they each got about $1000 per year, one at a state school, one at a private). It kind of depends on how many other kids at the school also need SEOG money, and that’s not something you can control.
You might explain to the mother that the FAFSA rules are changing and the only way for her to remain the custodial parent for FAFSA is for her to supply the majority of support for the child. She can estimate an amount for room and board, clothes, car rides, cell phone, etc. Could they agree to reduce the father’s support to $10k per year for the next few years with a lump sum due at college graduation? For the mother to remain the custodial parent for FAFSA, she has to pay $1 more for the support of the child than the father.
Or you can have an honest conversation with daughter and mother saying, “Look, the FA at colleges based on FAFSA is changing in '23-24 filing. We’ll complete the forms but it’s likely you will no longer qualify for need based financial aid because of the child support we pay means we’ll be the custodial parent(s) for FAFSA. We’ll continue paying the $17k child support and an additional $8k for tuition, but that’s it. If you choose a school that costs more than that, you will have to pay for it. We want you to go to college and want to help you find an affordable option but we have to all agree to it and how to finance it.”
Maybe the $35k merit scholarship, the $17k, the $8k, ( =$60k) and living at home from sophomore year on will be enough. The mom has to be prepared to ‘lose’ that $17k from her household accounts. That is always a shock to people who have been receiving that money every month (whether it happens at age 18 or 21).
The school can’t hold you responsible for the bill if you don’t agree to pay it. He is required to pay the ~$8k per year and that agreement is with his ex, not with any college. The college expects the student to pay. If he doesn’t pay the tuition, ex can sue him but not the college.