When reflecting on a situation, I often turn toward the data. Here is some that I compiled for the schools under consideration, with the acceptance rate info and test submission info pulled from the Dataverse aggregator. Because SMU’s and Trinity’s RD acceptance rates looked so surprising to me, I checked their Common Data Sets (section C22) and found their EA acceptance rates. Thus, they were shared as well (and give further evidence that people should apply EA whenever possible).
Also, I agree with @Ae1231 that a mid-1300s is not a bomb and should be submitted to a number of the schools on his list.
| School | RD Acceptance Rate | Test submission max | 25th percentile SAT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | 71% | 3% | 1170 |
| Miami U. | 88% | 72% | 1160 |
| Furman | 67% | 56% | 1260 |
| SMU | (81% EA) 27% | 38% | 1370 |
| Trinity | (59% EA) 14% | 63% | 1310 |
| Notre Dame | 9% | 67% | 1420 |
| Washington & Lee | 14% | 54% | 1410 |
| Wake Forest | 21% | 57% | 1380 |
| U. of Richmond | 15% | 38% | 1400 |
Looking at these data, these are my guesses as to his chances of admission (which also means that I no longer have an itch to find more extremely likely admits for him). I’ve also indicated the schools where I’d be most tempted to submit his current score.
Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
- Elon, submit test
- Miami U., submit test
Likely (60-79%)
- Furman, submit test
- Southern Methodist
Toss-Up (40-59%)
- Trinity (close to likely), submit test
Lower Probability (20-39%)
- U. of Richmond
Low Probability (less than 20%)
- Notre Dame
- Washington & Lee
- Wake Forest