I would use the school’s NPC for your schools of interest. Keep in mind that the NPC may not be accurate in certain situations ( self employed, divorce, etc). You can also call the schools and ask to speak to a FA counselor.You are right in that some schools ( such as UConn) have very limited NPCs.
My D applied to schools that met full financial need, as well as schools that did not. Schools that met full need gave us FA grants based on 2 in college ( these were profile schools). Some of these “meets full need” schools counted grad school, while most did not. Schools that my D applied to that did NOT meet full need …did not give us any FA based on 2 in college… even if our EFC was below the total COA with 2 in school. So… for example…if a school was $45,000-50,000 a year and our EFC with 2 in school was $35,000…or $27,000… or whatever…these schools offered us zero in FA… but …these schools did offer merit.
My advice is to plug the numbers into the schools NPC and call the FA office if you have further questions or want to run some numbers in greater detail. Another word of advice … if you are looking for money … is to apply to schools where merit is given.
***adding … if your daughter gets merit to Grinnell that is greater than the projected FA grant with 2 in school, she will (likely) not get FA.